Final Blog Question -- Good Bye Weather and Climate

There is very little similarities in the Earth’s continental structure to what we see today, and there will be little similarities in what we see today to what will be in 100 million years from now.  So when looking at Mombasa, Kenya’s location 100 million years ago and comparing that to the location in 100 million years from now, I must do a lot of speculating and be fully aware that what I feel could be right on the nose, but is far more likely to be incorrect in one, two or even three different ways.  But alas, I will attempt to explain how the weather patterns and the climate of Mombasa, Kenya is likely to change with the drifting of the continents.

Kenya’s location in general has stayed fairly stagnant for the last 100 million years and will not show the drastic location change that places like Australia have shown.  However in 100 million years from now Kenya and its neighboring costal countries will break away from Africa as a whole and this will change the climate the area is so used to. 

Today Mombasa lays slightly south of the equator and is strongly influenced by the ITCZ as can be read about in earlier posts. 

So let’s start our story with 100 million years ago, where did Mombasa rest.  Its location was close to 15⁰S 48⁰E.  This means that Mombasa moved about 11⁰ to the South and only 8⁰ to the East.  This means there won’t be any huge changes in what the overall climate was like.  But there will be settle differences like the climograph will have more of a curve to it and there will be influences from the ITCZ only once a year but we will get into that in just a bit.  Let’s take a look at where Mombasa sat 100 million years ago.

Earth 100 Million Years Ago

So what is this picture telling me about Mombasa, Kenya?  That the humid costal town was once a wetlands in the tropics of the South, just slightly above the Tropic of Capricorn. So when looking at a current day map, I would say that 100 million years ago Mombasa, Kenya sat where present day Madagascar is.  With that said, let’s contemplate what the weather was like in Mombasa 100 million years ago…  

Current Climograph of Mombasa, Kenya

Climograph of Mombasa 100 Million Years Ago (Thanks to Madagascar)

Climograph of Mombasa in 100 Million Years in the Future (thanks to Seychelles)

 So how do these three climographs compare to one another?  Let’s stick with the past first. Since Mombasa was further to the South then at present day there is going to be a lot more variances in the temperatures and a variances in the when and the amount of precipitation that the area would have gotten.  So why is this, why would a few degrees in latitude and a few degrees in longitude matter? 

                   The rain in the area has changed not only when it falls but the amount that falls.  There would be a lot more rain when the ITCZ passes because the region would is going to be more of a wet land and tropical rainforest environment then right now.  The area will still be a coastal region so the oceans will regulate the temperature variations but since the location is closer to the tropics it will have a lot more annual change in temperature due to the length of days the area will experience.   One of the reasons the climate could have experienced such temperature variations throughout the year is because there was likely more weather is more continentality occurring in the Southern Hemisphere 100 million years ago which would cause more seasonality and more weather battles, much like what occurs in the Northern Hemisphere today because of continuality.  When the ITCZ passes over the past Mombasa in the months of December to February it causes much more rain due to the high amount of water vapor that will be in the air because of evapotranspiration and maritime environments.  The climate would be very similar to current day Madagascar because of the similarities in Longitude and Latitude and because both regions would experience high influences from the ocean.

                The future of Mombasa, Kenya is incredible similar to what it is right now.  This is because the position of the area will not change much at all.  It will only move about 2⁰S and 2⁰E from the current location.  This is not enough to change much of the climate or the weather patterns at all.  The only thing that would change these patterns is a VERY slight change in the length of day throughout the year.  Just look at the map below…

The future of Mombasa shows us that the temperatures and amount of precipitation won’t change as much as it has over the last 100 million years.  The area will discover a little more annual variations but will in fact only have less variations diurnally then present day Mombasa experiences, because Kenya will completely be surrounded by water there won’t be as much regional variances which will cause a more stable environment.  However, I must add a disclaimer to all I have stated above; none of this will ever happen if the global climate temperatures continue to rise because Mombasa will be under the sea if that happens.