Final Blog Question -- Good Bye Weather and Climate

There is very little similarities in the Earth’s continental structure to what we see today, and there will be little similarities in what we see today to what will be in 100 million years from now.  So when looking at Mombasa, Kenya’s location 100 million years ago and comparing that to the location in 100 million years from now, I must do a lot of speculating and be fully aware that what I feel could be right on the nose, but is far more likely to be incorrect in one, two or even three different ways.  But alas, I will attempt to explain how the weather patterns and the climate of Mombasa, Kenya is likely to change with the drifting of the continents.

Kenya’s location in general has stayed fairly stagnant for the last 100 million years and will not show the drastic location change that places like Australia have shown.  However in 100 million years from now Kenya and its neighboring costal countries will break away from Africa as a whole and this will change the climate the area is so used to. 

Today Mombasa lays slightly south of the equator and is strongly influenced by the ITCZ as can be read about in earlier posts. 

So let’s start our story with 100 million years ago, where did Mombasa rest.  Its location was close to 15⁰S 48⁰E.  This means that Mombasa moved about 11⁰ to the South and only 8⁰ to the East.  This means there won’t be any huge changes in what the overall climate was like.  But there will be settle differences like the climograph will have more of a curve to it and there will be influences from the ITCZ only once a year but we will get into that in just a bit.  Let’s take a look at where Mombasa sat 100 million years ago.

Earth 100 Million Years Ago

So what is this picture telling me about Mombasa, Kenya?  That the humid costal town was once a wetlands in the tropics of the South, just slightly above the Tropic of Capricorn. So when looking at a current day map, I would say that 100 million years ago Mombasa, Kenya sat where present day Madagascar is.  With that said, let’s contemplate what the weather was like in Mombasa 100 million years ago…  

Current Climograph of Mombasa, Kenya

Climograph of Mombasa 100 Million Years Ago (Thanks to Madagascar)

Climograph of Mombasa in 100 Million Years in the Future (thanks to Seychelles)

 So how do these three climographs compare to one another?  Let’s stick with the past first. Since Mombasa was further to the South then at present day there is going to be a lot more variances in the temperatures and a variances in the when and the amount of precipitation that the area would have gotten.  So why is this, why would a few degrees in latitude and a few degrees in longitude matter? 

                   The rain in the area has changed not only when it falls but the amount that falls.  There would be a lot more rain when the ITCZ passes because the region would is going to be more of a wet land and tropical rainforest environment then right now.  The area will still be a coastal region so the oceans will regulate the temperature variations but since the location is closer to the tropics it will have a lot more annual change in temperature due to the length of days the area will experience.   One of the reasons the climate could have experienced such temperature variations throughout the year is because there was likely more weather is more continentality occurring in the Southern Hemisphere 100 million years ago which would cause more seasonality and more weather battles, much like what occurs in the Northern Hemisphere today because of continuality.  When the ITCZ passes over the past Mombasa in the months of December to February it causes much more rain due to the high amount of water vapor that will be in the air because of evapotranspiration and maritime environments.  The climate would be very similar to current day Madagascar because of the similarities in Longitude and Latitude and because both regions would experience high influences from the ocean.

                The future of Mombasa, Kenya is incredible similar to what it is right now.  This is because the position of the area will not change much at all.  It will only move about 2⁰S and 2⁰E from the current location.  This is not enough to change much of the climate or the weather patterns at all.  The only thing that would change these patterns is a VERY slight change in the length of day throughout the year.  Just look at the map below…

The future of Mombasa shows us that the temperatures and amount of precipitation won’t change as much as it has over the last 100 million years.  The area will discover a little more annual variations but will in fact only have less variations diurnally then present day Mombasa experiences, because Kenya will completely be surrounded by water there won’t be as much regional variances which will cause a more stable environment.  However, I must add a disclaimer to all I have stated above; none of this will ever happen if the global climate temperatures continue to rise because Mombasa will be under the sea if that happens.

Reflecting on the differences between the Yukon and Mombasa

There are many, many differences between May Village in the Yukon and Mombasa, Kenya.  One is a continental polar climate while the other is a tropical equatorial climate.  One rests in the interior of a large continent while the other rests on the coast of another continent.  One experiences a majority of its year in cold temperatures while the other has never had a day that would compare.  One is known and described for its dry conditions and the other is known for the humid conditions.  One location is known for its days with little to no sunlight while the other has the same amount of sun everyday (respectively).   Even right now as I write about and compare these two locations the temperature difference is 77⁰F: The Yukon is showing a temperature of -2⁰F, while Mombasa has a temperature of 79⁰F.  Tomorrow Mayo Village is predicting a high of -1⁰F while Mombasa is predicting a high of 90⁰F.  All of these differences make for enormous variations in the two locations climate.

The dominant wind patterns in the Yukon are influenced by the Polar easterlies but the wind patterns in Mombasa are influenced by the ITCZ, which will change the direction of the wind twice a year.  But the Yukon’s winds almost always flow from the East. 

When it comes to the differences they are apparent on the Köppen-Geiger climate classification.  Mayo Village is rated Dfc on this scale, which is a sub-arctic climate.  This area has large annual temperature difference that range from -24⁰F to 72⁰F and that high temperature only stays around for a short period of time.  This region is also characterized by very little precipitation, but the most of this occurs in July in general.  The area has long winters, which are extremely cold.  The area have very little sunlight with a LOW angle, that will drop to about 18⁰ in December and only get as high as about  64⁰ in June.  This does not allow for a lot of insolation to reach the surface.  Since there isn’t a whole lot of cloud cover in the area most of this insolation reaches the surface warming the area during the day, but then that radiation is quickly lost with the long nights causing a large diurnal variation of temperatures.

In Mombasa the Köppen-Geiger climate classification is Aw.  This is considered a Tropical savanna climate.  The angle of the sun in Mombasa stays rather constant averaging around 90⁰, but since the area rests on an ocean, all the insolation goes into the latent heat flux that causes the diurnal and annual temperatures to remain fairly constant.

These areas really have nothing in common with each other when it comes to climate or weather and are together a great example of enormous variations that happen on this Earth, all caused by continentality, water vapor,  solar irradiation, Coriolis effect, and the global wind patterns.  In this cause there are the differences between continental polar highs and the ITCZ, the extreme difference between solar angle and the difference between maritime and continentality conditions.

Climatology of Mombasa

 Mombasa, Kenya started collecting data on the climate in 1890 at a station on the shore of the Indian Ocean.  Since that time the area has slowly been adding stations to monitor the climatology of the area.  By 1920 Mombasa had records on the temperatures, daily hours of sun, the amount of cloud coverage, and the wind speeds of the area.  The area is rather humid but has wet seasons and dry seasons where the relative humidity will fluctuate.

Because of Kenya’s location it is very vulnerable to climate change and the effects.  This is attributed to three factors.  The first of these factors is the low altitude of the area.  Since the area is only 45 meters above sea level, which will leave it underwater when the sea levels rise.  Not only would the water on the beaches cause the city to be submerged but so would the two rivers that cut off a good part of Mombasa to the mainland.  The second factor that would make the area vulnerable is the higher temperatures that will come for the already hot area.  Finally, the humidity would too rise for the area with global climate change.

Kenya has such a dynamic climate that can change over short distances in large ways.  While Mombasa is on the coast and is a partial island it is surrounded by so many different environments that play into the why the weather moves throughout the area.  There are convergence zones that are caused by lakes, topography and many other things.  The change between desert and rainforest all play a large role in the way the regional weather works.  These factors help with the movement of the ITCZ (which brings in the monsoons).  However, Nicholson, prepossess there is a third maximum rainfall occurring during July or August, but the reason for this not yet completely understood and will have to be studied more to completely understand the complex weather patterns. 

The mean average rainfall for Mombasa is 99mm for November, but the rainfall in November of 1961 was 217mm.  This was an extremely heavy amount of rain for one month, but similar conditions occurred in 1963 with just a little less rainfall.  The time scale for heavy rainfall years is on a three to five year fluctuations, but has its strongest peak at five to six year intervals.

Mombasa has shown to be more interesting than originally thought.  The area has so much that plays into from the warm water currents on the coast line that cause high precipitation in the area during warm times of the year, to the diverse topography and the ITCZ of the area all play a huge role in the complex climate of the area.

Reflecting on the Differences Between Winnipeg and Mombasa

In choosing a city to compare and contrast I decided to choose a location that ranged on the complete opposite climate from Mombasa, Kenya’s location.  So I choose Winnipeg, Canada; a location that sits at 49⁰53’58”N 97⁰08’21”W compared to Mombasa which sits at 4⁰2’S 39⁰37’E, the difference of latitude and longitude should make for some interesting differences in weather and climate.  While both locations have relatively low elevations and humid conditions (although Winnipeg’s humidity isn’t nearly as high) there are no other similarities between Winnipeg and Mombasa.

Winnipeg has the Polar high pressure system that is a wet air mass.  While Mombasa sits in the Inter-tropical convergence zone and sits in a tropical high pressure area.  So while Winnipeg has one of the coldest and extreme environments, Mombasa has one of the warmest and moderate environments.  Winnipeg, Manitoba sits at the center of the North American continent and this leaves it with a climate that is driven on continentality, it does have Lake Winnipeg that will affect the weather of the area.  The lake sits 55 kilometers from the city.  The 24,514 square kilometers like adds moisture to the air changes the albedo of the area and will cause a lake effect to the area.   But, the area still has a high diurnal variation, especially when compared to Mombasa.  While Winnipeg will have days each month with poor weather, Mombasa only has poor weather in very specific months.  In Winnipeg the warmest month is July where the average high is 25⁰^c and the low is 14⁰^c.  The coldest month is January where the high only reaches about 16⁰^c while the lows drop to 25⁰^c.  This is a huge contrast to Mombasa where the warmest month is usually March where the average high is 33⁰^c and the low is around 24⁰^c.  These temperatures are not much different from Mombasa’s coldest months of July and August where the average highs are about 28⁰^c and the lows reach 20⁰c.   The reason for these differences in average diurnal temperatures is because Mombasa sits on an ocean surrounded by water that will regulate and moderate the temperatures, while Winnipeg sits in the middle of a continent that allows for huge fluxes in the amount of energy being absorbed and released daily. 

Mombasa, Kenya has a very temperate environment without much if any severe weather but Winnipeg is another story.  Since all Mombasa experiences is the ITCZ which brings monsoons twice a year, Winnipeg has the meeting of two very different air masses (the continental polar air and the continental arctic) which causes a battle of weather.  The movement of these air masses causes blizzards, tornadoes, and ice storms.  

The Monsoons of Mombasa... and a little bit more...

The weather patterns of Mombasa are strongly influenced by the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone.  This is where the North East and South East Trade winds meet and create winds which migrate north and south with the changing seasons.  The ITCZ affects the climate of Mombasa by intensifying the normal weather patterns of the area.  When the convergence of the ITCZ is above Mombasa there is more rain in the area, and the winds are stronger.  The winds blow from the southeast, between April to Octobor and then the Monsoon comes moving the direction from northeast, and this pattern lasts from December to March.  The wind change corrilates with those Months where they get the most rain.

The Kazkazi (Northeasterly wind change) is a relative dry monsoon and the Kuzi (Southeasterly wind change) monsoon is full of moisture form the maritime air of the Indian Ocean.  This brings the havey rains of May a sign the wind has changed directions.  When the area is not experiencing a monsoon season the climate becomes very stabel and withouth much interest, some might even say that it is boaring.  However, it is said that Mombasa is the windiest coastal town of Eastern Africa throughout the year. How can that be boring?  Stay tuned and you’ll find out what else makes this climate so fascinating.

The Basics of Weather and Climate in Mombasa

Mombasa is a coastal town that lays very close to the equator in Eastern Africa.  This location means many things when it comes to weather, but mostly, Mombasa is HOT & HUMID.  There are small variations in the diurnal and annual temperatures.  And those temperatures only have an average monthly range of about 4.5⁰C.  The Mombasa area has a very stable climate due to its maritime environment, where the ocean stabilizes its temperature.   How does it do this?  The shortwave radiation comes into the area and all the energy that comes with it is put into the latent heat flux of changing the water forms (also keeping people from being able to cool themselves with evaporation).

There is a rainy season, which starts in April and lasts for two months.  June is when the sun “returns” and May is by far the rainiest month.  Receiving about 45.7” of precipitation annually; June and July are cool months (relatively) because the average temperature for June is 80⁰F(27⁰ C).  The Mombasa cool is cool because of a second wet season!!!  October and November receive great heavy rains that happen during afternoons.  Could this be because of convection storms just like Denver?

So what happens when it starts to snow in Denver?   That is when Mombasa, Kenya starts to become the place to be.  The “sun” season starts in December, and continues to shine until April (when the rains return.)  But during their sunny season the temperatures reach 88⁰F(31⁰ C) with a humidity of ~70+%